About a third of the S&P 500’s companies have lifted the curtain on their results so far, and the reviews have been glowing: profits are up roughly 9% from last year, with most firms topping expectations. But the next wave of reports will test the two storylines that have kept investors hooked all year – AI and the American shopper.

On the tech front, the heroes of the AI tale-Palantir, Qualcomm, AMD, Super Micro Computer, and Arista Networks – are walking into this week with some great expectations from the market. The bulls are betting that corporate spending on chips, cloud gear, and AI software is still ramping up – setting the stage for the next chapter of earnings growth. Palantir’s stock, for one, is priced for 55% revenue growth and 85% earnings growth. These numbers won’t be enough for this crowd: investors are looking for more happily-ever guidance from every AI-adjacent name in the credits too. If any of them hint that adoption is leveling off or capital spending is slowing, the AI trade that’s gripped the markets this year could lose its magic.

Then there’s the consumer storyline – the one about the wallets that just won’t quit. McDonald’s will offer clues about lower-income demand, Shopify and Pinterest about online retail activity, and Airbnb and Uber about travel and services demand. So far, wealthy households and brand-name staples have held firm, while middle- and lower-income spenders have been sluggish. It’s not until you put their results together that you find out whether the economy’s still K-shaped – with the health of wealthier shoppers and businesses offsetting weakness elsewhere – or if that imbalance is pulling everything lower.

On the big-picture macro side of things, investors are willing to bury their heads in whatever data they can get. The US government’s shutdown has limited official data releases, and that’s turning private surveys – like the factory and service sector purchasing managers’ indexes – into must-reads. Manufacturing activity has been shrinking in recent months, while the services side – the bulk of the economy – has been flirting with its first drop in years.

Now, a soft patch won’t necessarily be bad news for AI and consumer-facing stocks – slower growth often invites central bank stimulus, like lower interest rates. But the line between “softening” and “cracking” is thin. With stock valuations stretched and optimism high, any signal that our AI and consumer heroes are losing momentum could trigger an unhappy ending.