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What happened last week?

Global

  • Gold prices reached a record price of above $3,500.

US

  • Alphabet won its court ruling – and investors joined the celebrations.
  • The US created a lower-than-expected 22,000 jobs in August.

Europe

  • The UK’s long-term borrowing costs reached their highest in nearly 30 years.

Why It Matters

Investors have a lot to be nervous about – from looming interest rate decisions and budget deficits to the weakening dollar and trade tensions. That’s why they’ve flocked toward their, ahem, gold standard of safe-haven assets. The result: gold’s up 36% this year, notching a record-high price above $3,500.

A court ruled that Alphabet can keep its Chrome browser and Android operating system, rather than forcing it to split up in the interest of fair competition. The Google-owner will even be allowed to keep paying third parties, like Apple, for prime feature placements. Investors had expected the firm to get more than that slap on the wrist, so they rewarded Alphabet’s stock with a 9% uptick. They sent Apple up 3%, too, since Alphabet pays it around $20 billion a year to be the default iPhone search engine.

The US created 22,000 jobs in August, fewer than the 75,000 expected. That suggested a continued economic slowdown. And in turn, that cemented traders' expectations for an interest rate trim later this month and increased the likelihood of more rate cuts in the months ahead.

Yields on the UK’s 30-year government bonds reached 5.7%, their highest level since 1998. That’s because investors are increasingly concerned about the country’s mounting government debt – and they’re demanding higher returns to make up for the extra risk.

The Focus This Week: We’re Spiralling…

Budget deficits – when governments spend more than they raise – are growing around the world. In theory, countries can keep their deficits in check by lowering public spending or increasing tax revenues. Both, though, are usually unpopular with voters.

This can get complicated – just look at France right now. The country’s budget deficit was worth 5.8% of its economy last year, well above the eurozone’s 3% limit. And while a strong economy can lead to increased tax revenues, the French one is only plodding along.

That leaves the other option: spending cuts. Famously an unfavourable option, the French prime minister has called a confidence vote for Monday in a bid to secure support for the trims. If he doesn’t get enough votes – which seems likely – then he’ll be forced to resign.

Wary of all the “unknowns”, investors have sent long-term French government borrowing costs to their highest level in over 16 years. That’s a problem: higher costs force the government to either borrow more money or cut other costs. That leads to slower growth and lower tax revenues… meaning an even bigger deficit.

This isn’t an isolated incident. Many countries – including the UK, the US, and Japan – seem to have unsustainable public debt. So, wary of so-called “debt spirals” all around the world, investors have pushed up many countries' long-term bond yields.

  • Monday: French no-confidence vote.
  • Tuesday: China inflation (August), China PPI (August). Earnings: Gamestop.
  • Wednesday: Japan PPI (August).
  • Thursday: Eurozone interest rate decision, US inflation (August). Earnings: Adobe.
  • Friday: UK industrial production (July), US consumer sentiment (September).

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