Skip to main content
Drilling Into The Details: The Investing Week Ahead

Market Update

10.11.2025

subscribe

What happened last week?

US

  • Layoffs for this year hit a five-year high.
  • Tesla sold fewer EVs than expected.

Europe

  • The Bank of England held interest rates steady.
  • Novo Nordisk cut its profit forecasts.

Why It Matters

Companies laid off 153,000 US workers in October, nearly triple the number from a year ago, with tech and warehouse jobs seeing the biggest cuts. That brought the number of layoffs so far this year to over one million – the most since the pandemic – with AI growing more confident and the consumer growing more cautious. It’s not redundancies affecting the job market: hiring plans haven’t been this weak since 2011. Together, that suggests the employment picture might be darkening faster than the Federal Reserve expected.

Tesla’s global sales slammed on the brakes again in October, with deliveries falling by 50% in key European markets and 10% in China. While US figures aren’t in yet, analysts aren’t expecting a great ride – especially with the tax-credit-fueled rush now over. Still, Tesla’s stock has been driving in a different lane: it’s up 12% this year, boosted by CEO Elon Musk’s long-term bets on self-driving tech and robotics. It’s why shareholders approved an eye-watering $1 trillion pay package for him just last week – a vote of confidence despite signs of weakening demand.

The Bank of England (BoE) hit pause on its run of interest rate cuts, holding its key lending rate at 4%, after a close vote. The move wasn’t altogether surprising: consumer prices rose 3.8% in September compared to a year ago, far faster than the central bank’s 2% target pace. The BoE said that it’ll keep rates on a “gradual downward path” – and traders took the hint, upping their bets on a December cut.

Novo Nordisk lowered its outlook for a third time this year, after another underwhelming quarter. Sales growth slowed, and profit was light. Meanwhile, rival Eli Lilly has continued sprinting ahead, lifting its outlook as it rides the same obesity-drug wave. That’s had Novo trying to catch up – cutting 11% of staff and bidding for biotech firm Metsera. Still, investors remain sceptical, with the stock down nearly 50% this year. With US drug pricing reforms looming and a Medicare deal that could boost access but squeeze margins, some may find they don't have the stomach for the uncertainty ahead.

The Focus This Week: OPEC’s Monthly Oil Check

OPEC’s Monthly Oil Market Report offers a detailed snapshot of the global oil market. It covers supply and demand trends, price moves, production changes, and the broader economic forces that affect energy markets. More importantly, it offers a glimpse into what the oil cartel might do next. With OPEC meeting later this month to map out its 2026 strategy, it’s especially relevant right now.

Since 2022, the group of oil-producing countries had been trying to rebalance the market with a string of cuts to its output – only to see non-OPEC players like the US, Brazil, Canada, and Guyana sweep in and fill the gap. Eventually, OPEC got tired of seeing its grip on the market loosen.

So earlier this year, it started reversing some of those output cuts, hoping to grab its market share back. Analysts warned the move could drag prices lower, but OPEC’s leaders have insisted that it reflects “healthy market fundamentals” and lean inventory levels. With oil prices “only” down 14% this year, even as they crank out almost three million more barrels a day, they seem to have a point.

Still, the whole backdrop’s getting trickier. China’s demand has been cooling, and output across the Americas keeps climbing – a combination that’s tilting the market toward oversupply. Major trading houses like Trafigura have been counting tankers filled with unsold oil and say the glut is already real. The International Energy Agency (IEA) is forecasting that supply could outpace demand by over three million barrels a day this quarter – and could potentially balloon into a record overshoot next year.

That’s why the next monthly oil report (due Wednesday) could be so important. OPEC tends to keep its forecasts sunny, but if this update sounds more cautious, it could be a sign that the group’s preparing to tap the brakes on its plan to ramp up production before the market drowns in excess oil.

The Week Ahead

  • Monday: Nothing major.
  • Tuesday: UK employment (September), eurozone economic sentiment (November).
  • Wednesday: OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (November). Earnings: Cisco.
  • Thursday: UK economic growth (Q3), UK industrial production (September), eurozone industrial production (September), US inflation (October). Earnings: Disney, Applied Materials.
  • Friday: China retail sales and industrial production (October), eurozone economic growth (Q3), eurozone trade balance (September), US retail sales (October).

    This document is provided to you for your information and discussion purposes only. It is not a solicitation for business or an offer to buy or sell any security or other financial instrument. Any information including facts, opinions, or quotations, may be condensed or summarised and are expressed as of the date of writing. The information may change without notice and Trusted Novus Bank (“TNB”) is under no obligation to ensure that such updates are brought to your attention. Past performance is not a guide to future performance.