Just over a week ago, the US president fired the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), claiming that the monthly jobs report for July was “rigged” to make him look bad. That’s had investors on pins and needles: the bureau has been a central hub for trusted US figures that influence decision-making for trillions of dollars in investments – for individuals, businesses, and governments. With federal data collectors at risk of abruptly losing their jobs if they deliver unflattering economic news, the question may soon become whether US economic indicators might lose that trust.

The first big test comes Tuesday: the US is set to release the consumer price index for July.

Experts expect the report to show that inflation eased to 2.6% in that month, compared to the year before, weighed down by a slowing economy and the drag of still-elevated interest rates. A higher-than-expected inflation number could cast doubt over the potential for an interest rate cut next month from the Federal Reserve (Fed). On the flipside, however, a lower-than-expected figure could raise questions about the integrity of the report. And, hard as it is to believe, that might actually be a first for the market.

Complicating issues is the fact that the BLS disclosed recently it had suspended data collection for 15% of the inflation sample – so it’s estimating prices in those areas. And that’s already raising some eyebrows about how accurate they might be.