What happened last week?
Global
- Global trade tensions became even more heated, with Canada and Europe hitting back at US tariffs on steel and aluminium imports.
US
- US stocks fell by around 10%, finally looking vulnerable after more than a decade of unwavering dominance.
Europe
- Europe plans to test its fiscal limits, pushing billions into defence initiatives.
Asia
- China’s inflation dipped below zero, highlighting the deflationary pressures weighing on the world’s second-biggest economy.
Why It Matters
The US president implemented a 25% tariff on all steel and aluminium imports, aiming to bolster domestic industries. But the backlash was immediate. Canada hit back with its own matching tariffs on nearly $30 billion worth of US imports, with an imminent start date. Europe won’t be far behind. The region plans to roll out $28 billion worth of retaliatory tariffs come April, targeting iconic American produce like bourbon, motorcycles, and peanut butter. With companies likely to push a lot of those extra costs onto everyday consumers, the economy could feel the pinch – all while trade tensions ramp up. No wonder investors are sweating.
After dominating for over a decade, US exceptionalism may be fading. Wall Street’s infatuation with Big Tech looks less full-on than usual, with investors rethinking the market’s long-held narrative. Case in point: Citigroup just downgraded US stocks to “neutral” while upgrading Chinese ones to “overweight”, reflecting newfound optimism for China’s offerings. It’s early days, but if global markets can hold the momentum, they could finally narrow the gap between them and their US rivals.
Europe’s defence splurge is on. Germany’s eyeing a €500 billion ($545 billion) defence and infrastructure fund, while the European Investment Bank plans to double or even triple its related funding. That aligns with the “ReArm Europe” plan, which could mobilise up to €800 billion ($872 billion). The question underneath it all, though, is how much Europe will bend its financial limits to fund this spree.
China’s consumer prices quickly headed south – which in fairness, could’ve been distorted by seasonal quirks. But still, it lays bare just how weak domestic demand is. The government has tried to encourage more spending, but if consumers refuse to play ball, it may take a much bigger dose of fiscal and monetary stimulus to get the job done.
The Focus This Week: The Scissors May Stay Hidden
The Federal Reserve (Fed) meets next week, and those holding their breath waiting for a rate cut, might want to stop before they pass out. Sure, the US economy is looking a little unsure: shoppers are reining in spending, manufacturing is slowing down, and business confidence is slipping. Plus, inflation eased in February, suggesting that the central bank could have room to tinker with rates. But remember the other side. Inflation is expected to stay stubborn, with wage growth – which feeds into higher prices – refusing to budge. After all, both consumers and investors are bracing for inflation to overstay its welcome, which (ironically) makes it even more likely to do so.
Then there’s the tariff wildcard. The US president’s latest trade levies haven’t shown up in the data yet, but when they do, everything from food to clothing could get pricier. That means the recent inflation cooldown could just be a pit stop before prices speed away once again. Unless, of course, the economy falls hard enough to drag inflation down with it.
This puts the Fed in a tough spot. Cut too soon, and inflation could come straight back. Wait too long, and the economy might be squeezed too tight. Investors’ expectations of three rate cuts this year seem reasonable – but with so much uncertainty around right now, the jury’s out on when they’ll land. So, expect more of the usual “wait and see” messaging from the central bank, which will keep investors glued to every data release.
That could bring around a volatile period for investors. Stocks and bonds are likely to bounce around as fresh data – or political curveballs – roll in. For long-term investors, the smart move is probably to stay diversified. Not just across regions, but also across asset classes, sectors, and styles. As always, avoid knee-jerk reactions to short-term fluctuations.

The Week Ahead
- Monday: US retail sales (February), China industrial production and retail sales (January to February)
- Tuesday: Germany economic sentiment (March). Earnings: XPeng
- Wednesday: US interest rate decision, Japan interest rate decision
- Thursday: UK unemployment rate (January), UK interest rate decision. Earnings: Nike, FedEx, Lululemon, Micron, Accenture
- Friday: Japan inflation (February), Earnings: NIO
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