Nvidia makes up an attention-grabbing 8% of the S&P 500 index and holds the title of world’s most valuable company. It’s also AI’s star performer. With AI infrastructure projects coming in hot and heavy from every Big Tech mega-company, the market’s expectations are high. So when the company opens its books this week, investors will be looking for specifics – on the $500 billion data centre forecast, the Rubin chip rollout, and how quickly OpenAI will put Nvidia’s tech to work.

Some of AI’s demand has started to look a little circular, and that’s got investors squinting. Nvidia just signed an agreement to invest up to $100 billion into OpenAI's data center construction, which will have OpenAI then buying chips from Nvidia. It’s a power move, sure – but it’s also fueling questions about how much real money is in the system and how much is just being recycled.

There’s also growing speculation that AI firms have been puffing up their forecasts by exaggerating how long Nvidia’s chips last – overstating their profits to the tune of $176 billion between 2026 and 2028. And that’s giving rise to an earlier (and still unresolved) worry about AI – whether the tech sector’s massive spending will deliver the kind of profit that justifies the expense.

Nvidia’s update, due Wednesday, won’t settle those open questions. But tech stocks are just off one of their worst weeks in years – and the chipmaker could set the tone for what they do next.