The International Energy Agency (IEA) sees global oil markets racking up their biggest surplus ever next year, with inventories piling up at a rate of nearly three million barrels a day – topping even the pandemic-era glut. That’s thanks to sluggish demand growth (especially in China, India, and Brazil) and a surge in production from OPEC+ members and non-members like the US and Canada. The imbalance has already pushed crude prices down roughly 12% this year, easing inflation pressures but squeezing oil producers. What’s not clear is how OPEC+ might respond to the situation. After all, its view isn’t quite as grim: it sees average daily demand growing at double what the IEA is projecting.

Nvidia and AMD reached a novel workaround to US chip export restrictions, striking a deal to give the government a 15% cut of their revenue from China in exchange for market access. That’s a big slice of their income, but it beats being locked out of the world's second-biggest economy entirely. The firms could potentially offset the costs by raising prices or creating new, more profitable products. For investors, though, the arrangement is seen as setting a precedent: writing political risk directly into a company’s revenue model and ushering in an era of “pay-to-play” global trade.

US inflation held steady in July at 2.7% a year, defying expectations for a slight acceleration. Whilst core consumer prices, which strip out volatile food and energy items, rose at their fastest pace since January, the speed was driven by services rather than tariff-impacted goods. That calmed fears about a broader price surge, giving investors fresh confidence that the Fed could cut interest rates next month, and lifting stocks to record highs on Tuesday. Plenty of economists remained wary, though, warning that tariff-induced inflation could still build, especially as more businesses signal plans to hike prices.

China and the US decided to keep their trade truce going for another 90 days, putting a pause on massive tariff hikes while they try to tackle deeper disputes. The agreement also included Nvidia and AMD’s deal to sell AI chips in China for a revenue cut. But in a classic strategic move, China has begun pushing its country’s firms to favour domestic chipmakers like Huawei, potentially sidelining American ones. Markets mostly shrugged off the drama, already used to the two countries’ on-again, off-again relationship and preferring to wait for a more definitive decision.