What happened last week?
Global
- Taiwan-based TSMC delivered an upbeat outlook, giving Netherlands-based ASML a boost.
- Gold and other metals hit new highs as investors sought hard assets.
The US
- Alphabet joined the $4 trillion club.
The UK
- The UK economy reversed a decline and grew faster than expected.
Why It Matters
TSMC said it’ll invest as much as $56 billion this year to expand its chipmaking capacity, a heftier-than-anticipated amount that signalled its confidence in the strength of the AI boom. It also upped its revenue growth forecast for the year to almost 30%, quicker than consensus. The news boosted TSMC and other AI plays, too. Key supplier ASML saw its shares jump 8% to a record in Europe, sending its market value above $500 billion.
Gold, silver, copper, and tin all hit new record highs as uncertainty about the Federal Reserve’s leadership and interest rates added new shine to the market’s safe havens and hard assets in general. Put simply, they’ve all been hot commodities lately. Industrial metals have been boosted by demand from AI data centers, grid upgrades, and electrification projects. Meanwhile, precious metals have been lifted by central bank buying, a weaker US dollar, and general investor fear about government debt.
Alphabet’s market value topped $4 trillion, making it just the fourth company to cross that milestone. The move followed news that the Google parent had struck a deal to help power Apple’s AI technology, including its Siri assistant. The $4 trillion club is a small and shifting one. Last year, Nvidia, Microsoft, and Apple all cleared the bar for entry, but both Microsoft and Apple have dropped back below it. That leaves Alphabet and Nvidia as its only members.
The UK economy expanded by a stronger-than-expected 0.3% in November, easing at least some recession worries. Economists were forecasting a rise of just 0.1% for the latest month, after a 0.1% slip in October. The country’s growth was hit hard last year by a cyber attack that slowed production for carmaker Jaguar Land Rover. But the automaker was up and revving in November, contributing to overall growth with a 25.5% manufacturing rebound.
The Focus This Week: Netflix Earnings
Netflix’s results are due on Tuesday. They’re expecting another star-studded quarter: double-digit revenue and profit growth and hoping for signs that the streamer’s ad-supported tier is ready to steal some scenes. Subscriber count is still important, but the real story is how Netflix is squeezing more value out of each one through price hikes, password crackdowns, and, especially, ads. The last quarter of every year is prime time for advertising budgets, so investors will be watching closely to see how things went. This is because it’s not clear yet whether the firm can keep scaling that business without denting its margins or annoying its viewers.
Why this matters goes beyond Netflix. If the streamer can boost its profits through advertising and broader monetisation – rather than just user numbers – it reinforces a broader market lesson. In a slower-growth world, businesses with real pricing power deserve a premium stock price. However, fall short on ads, margins, or strategy, and the plot can twist fast.
There’s a major subplot developing here, too. Netflix made an $83 billion offer to buy Warner Bros Discovery, and is reportedly preparing to sweeten the terms to make it an all-cash proposition – in hopes of fending off Paramount’s hostile bid. Netflix has long been known for creating its own content – not buying it. The streamer has carried very little debt in recent years. Buying WBD could change all that, and that has investors watching through their fingers. That’s why this feels like a pivotal scene: it’s about whether the market continues to reward profitable growth over ambition at any cost.
The Week Ahead
- Monday: China economic growth (Q4), China industrial production (December), and China retail sales (December). US markets are closed for the day.
- Tuesday: UK unemployment (November), Germany economic sentiment (January). Earnings: Netflix, 3M.
- Wednesday: UK inflation (December). Earnings: Johnson & Johnson.
- Thursday: US personal consumption expenditures (October and November). Earnings: Procter & Gamble, Intel, Intuitive Surgical, GE Aerospace, Abbott Laboratories.
- Friday: Japan inflation (December), Bank of Japan interest rate decision, UK retail sales (December), Japan PMI (January). Earnings: SLB.
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