Fireplaces are roaring, Christmas lights are on, and carol singers will not stop knocking at the door. So, in the spirit of festive nostalgia, let’s look back at this year as a whole – and forward to 2026, too.

Investors sent many global stock markets to all-time highs this year. In the US, the S&P 500 pulled off a 16% return (at the time of writing). But after a decade of American dominance, international stocks stormed the leaderboard: Korea’s Kospi index led Asia’s charge with a 64% return, and Spain’s IBEX steered Europe with a 46% uptick.

Despite seeing success in stock markets, investors – both retail and institutional – couldn’t quite shake their concerns about trade tensions and broader geopolitical fallouts. So, along with many central banks, they added precious metals to their portfolios for some protection. That led to stellar returns: silver and gold prices were pushed up 128% and 65%, respectively – and related mining stocks were taken along for the ride. (Silver’s lead is down to the metal’s side gig as a key component in industrial production.) Copper notched a 33% rally as well: besides investors’ interest, that was supported by the metal’s crucial role in clean energy solutions and AI data centres.

Speaking of AI, tech was a standout in US markets again – despite investors becoming increasingly concerned about a bubble. Oil was the opposite case: the benchmark crude price fell around 20%, making it one of the year’s worst performers. Crypto has also been disappointing. Bitcoin and ether slipped 30% and 40% from their record highs, respectively, leaving them both in negative territory for the year.

Now, let’s look forward to next year. We should start with expectations for corporate earnings: after all, earnings growth is a key driver of long-term stock returns. According to Goldman Sachs, S&P 500 companies should tick up by around 12% next year, Asia (excluding Japan) by 16%, Japan by 9%, and Europe by 14%. That’s an encouraging set of figures, with the big bank being one of many to back Asia and the US above the rest.

Of course, the AI sector could make or break those rallies. In the best near-term case, companies keep making major investments, companies and countries implement the tech, and the resulting increase in productivity unlocks monetary value. In the worst case, the opposite is true. That will-they-won’t-they dynamic is why many strategists recommend diversifying away from Big Tech. Mind you, they’ve said that for years, and the tech sector has remained one of the S&P 500’s best performers… so far.

You know what they say: the only certainty is uncertainty. Besides AI, surprises could stem from geopolitical turmoil, cyber-hacking incidents, faster-than-expected progress in quantum computing… Or the more boring cause: interest rate changes. Right now, traders expect the Federal Reserve to make two trims in 2026 – but more or bigger cuts could hurt the US dollar and bolster gold. If the US president appoints a new central bank chair who shares his more aggressive outlook, rates may be slashed more than expected. Now, while lower rates might stunt the US dollar, they would help the domestic economy – especially smaller companies – and some emerging market stocks. Keep an eye on the Bank of Japan’s decisions, too: another rate hike could send ripples through global asset markets.

With all the unknowns, you’ll want to consider the classic advice: hold a diversified portfolio across assets, regions, and sectors.