What happened last week?
Global
- Gold climbed to a new record as geopolitical tensions underpinned demand for haven assets.
- Broadcom and TSMC started exploring a breakup of Intel.
US
- Figure AI’s new funding round looked to raise new equity at a $40 billion valuation, 15 times higher than it secured last year.
Europe
- European defence stocks rallied after NATO hinted that the region may need to spend more on its front-line.
- UK inflation jumped to 3% in January, its highest level in ten months.
Why It Matters
Gold reached a new record above $2,950 per ounce as increased geopolitical concerns sent investors toward the haven asset. Fear that the US could abandon its support for Ukraine was the latest concerning development, compounding ongoing worries about how America’s pitched higher tariffs could influence businesses and whole economies.
Besides threatening tariffs, the new US president is fraying the relationship between the US and various allies. The US is no longer flashing the cash on projects that offer limited value to Americans, so Europe may not be able to rely on the States to foot its security bill forever. European defence stocks rallied as NATO hinted that the region may need to increase its own defence budget to over 3% of the size of its economy – up from the old target of 2%.
In the UK, January’s inflation print of 3% was higher than economists’ forecasts of 2.8%. So now, the Bank of England has interest rate decisions to make. Britain is in need of a trim: consumer confidence has dropped to a post-election low, and lower rates would lessen the pressure on Brits, encourage spending, and push along the slow-moving economy. This complicates what would otherwise be a straightforward decision, by suggesting higher-for-longer rates are needed to bring down inflation.
Even with such serious shifts underway, many of the headlines were still dominated by AI advancements. Figure AI announced a new funding round that could value the robotics company at nearly $40 billion, 15 times higher than last year. Plus, Elon Musk’s xAI released its latest Grok model, claiming that it’s smarter than its competitors, while Perplexity AI launched a new free “Deep Research” AI Tool to compete with OpenAI’s offering of the same name.
The Focus This Week: Nvidia’s Results
Investors will be clearing their calendars to watch Nvidia’s quarterly results on February 26th. They’ll cover the final quarter of the AI chipmaker’s financial year. If Nvidia lives up to – or better yet, surpasses expectations, that could reassure investors that the stock’s valuation and forecasts are justified.
Wall Street analysts expect Nvidia to keep revenue moving at an exceptional pace. In fact, they expect last quarter’s revenue to land between $37 billion and $38 billion, which would be some 70% to 72% higher than the same time last year.
Conscious that the launch of its new products may impact its margins, investors will want reassurance that Nvidia’s gross margins – the percentage of revenue that becomes gross profit – stay thick. That shouldn’t be a stretch: the last quarterly figure reported was 75%, and the company predicted 73% for the upcoming quarters. On profit, analysts predict quarterly profit of $19.5 billion, up 61% from a year earlier, while some forecasts pitch even higher.
Investors will also be looking for signs that sales of its graphics processing units (GPUs) for data centres – expected to be the company’s growth engine over the coming years – can climb past its current peak. Pay special attention to any commentary on the performance and order outlook for its H100 (Hopper) and Blackwell GPUs.
Nvidia’s share price fell sharply after DeepSeek released a ChatGPT rival, traded for a fraction of the price. That’s because investors worried that companies would start cutting down on pricey chips and processors when building tools. But the selloff was short-lived: Nvidia’s share price has rebounded for now, with investors reassured that key clients like Amazon, Microsoft, and Alphabet show no signs of slowing their spending. Plus, if cheaper offerings increase the rate of AI usage, that extra business won’t hurt.


The Week Ahead
- Monday: Earnings: Zoom.
- Tuesday: US consumer confidence (February). Earnings: Home Depot, AMC Entertainment, Intuit.
- Wednesday: US new home sales (January). Earnings: Nvidia, Salesforce, Snowflake.
- Thursday: US economic growth (fourth quarter, 2024), US durable goods orders (January), Japan industrial production (January), Japan retail sales (January). Earnings: HP.
- Friday: China purchasing managers index (PMI) (February).
This document is provided to you for your information and discussion purposes only. It is not a solicitation for business or an offer to buy or sell any security or other financial instrument. Any information including facts, opinions, or quotations, may be condensed or summarised and are expressed as of the date of writing. The information may change without notice and Trusted Novus Bank (“TNB”) is under no obligation to ensure that such updates are brought to your attention. Past performance is not a guide to future performance.
This document has been prepared by TNB from sources TNB believes to be reliable but TNB does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness and does not accept liability for any loss arising from its use. TNB reserves the right to remedy any errors that may be present in this document.
Trusted Novus is registered in Gibraltar under number 3207. Its registered address and principal place of business is: Trusted Novus Bank Limited, 76 Main Street, Gibraltar GX11 1AA. It is regulated by the Gibraltar Financial Services Commission (Permission Number 3207) to provide Banking and Investment Services. TNB is a member of the Gibraltar Deposit Guarantee Board (www.gdgb.gi) and the Gibraltar Investor Compensation Scheme (www.gics.gi).