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Market Update

18.12.2023

What happened last week?

Europe

  • The UK economy shrank in October, catching economists off guard.
  • The Bank of England (BoE) held rates steady but didn’t hint at any rate cuts.
  • It was the same at the European Central Bank (ECB). Economies in the bloc may be teetering, but the central bank’s still worried inflation might have a sting in its tail.

US

  • Inflation edged ever so slightly lower in November.
  • The Federal Reserve (the Fed) held interest rates steady but hinted at multiple rate cuts next year.

Asia

  • Pork prices fell in China, reviving worries about a deflationary spiral.

What does this mean?

This week’s focus was still inflation, growth, and interest rates. US prices cooled ever-so-slightly. But the Federal Reserve (Fed) made the biggest headlines, keeping rates unchanged but hinting at three potential interest rate cuts next year. Even though that is fewer than market participants expect, the Fed’s been saying the opposite for most of the year, so this “pivot” was cheered loudly by the stock and bond markets. The Dow Jones hit an all-time high, and the other indexes were hot on its heels.

The British economy unexpectedly shrank in October, compared to September, sparking new recession fears. This might tempt the Bank of England (BoE) to follow the Fed’s lead and start talking about chopping interest rates, but inflation figures are still a bit too hot for that. That’s why the central bank kept rates where they are, with not a whisper about cuts.

The mood’s similar over at the European Central Bank (ECB). Despite recent data showing inflation is dropping like a stone, the Bank stuck firmly to its higher-for-longer interest rate tune. Mind you, that’s what the Fed was saying too, just weeks ago.

China, meanwhile, is plowing a lonely furrow. The Chinese economy is stalling after a decent ascent early in the year, and now prices are falling, and that is igniting fears of outright deflation: inflation’s uglier and more stubborn cousin. It’s a potentially disastrous scenario so the calls for China to pull out economic stimulus are only growing louder.

This week's focus: Odds of a soft landing have narrowed

Stock-picking enthusiasts leap into January, hoping for steady macroeconomic conditions, so they can focus squarely on sorting the good stocks from the bad. This works out great until moments later when some unforeseen, negative economic event comes along to distract them. But that might not happen this year.

The odds of the US nailing the so-called soft landing (that is: when higher interest rates bring down hot inflation without triggering a recession) have narrowed a lot recently, and right now it’s seen as the most likely outcome. What that means is that investors might be able to knuckle down and focus on company fundamentals for a change.

If you ignore geopolitical and macro-economic factors and look at stock investing from a purely “bottom-up” perspective, the fundamentals look solid. Take the forecasts for S&P 500 profit growth, for example. The latest analyst survey from data firm FactSet suggests profit growth of 12% for 2024. If (a big if) that’s right, it would be considerably better than the index’s long-run 8% average, and miles better than anyone would have thought at the start of 2023.

Another thing, whilst revenues are predicted to grow too, they’re expected to grow at about half the pace of profit. That can only happen if profit margins fatten up. That’s a massive win for US companies and at least some proof that they’re able to cope with whatever the economy throws at them. No wonder stock prices are breaking records.

  • The Week Ahead

    • Monday: German ifo business climate (December).
    • Tuesday: Bank of Japan interest rate announcement, euro area inflation (November). Earnings: Accenture, FedEx, FactSet, Manchester United.
    • Wednesday: UK inflation (November). Earnings: Nike.
    • Thursday: Japan inflation (November).
    • Friday: US personal consumption expenditure (PCE, November).

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