What happened last week?
Global
- Bitcoin’s latest rally pushed it above the $90,000 mark for the first time ever.
US
- Consumer prices rose at a modestly faster pace in October.
Europe
- European stocks lagged behind US ones by the most since 1995.
Why It Matters
Why It Matters
Bitcoin has rocketed more than 30% since the US election, smashing through the $90,000 barrier for the first-time last week. A mix of factors is fuelling the frenzy. For starters, traders have been betting on pro-crypto changes from the incoming US administration, which has floated ideas like a national bitcoin reserve and looser regulations. Plus, there’s been increased buying from big institutional investors, with some viewing bitcoin as a hedge against inflation and fluctuations in traditional currencies. Then there’s good old FOMO playing a role. But don’t be afraid to be sceptical: DOGE tripled in value after Elon Musk was tapped to lead the “Department Of Government Efficiency” (yes, that’s DOGE), and that suggests hype might be playing more than just a minor role.
US consumer prices rose by 2.6% in October compared to the same time last year – up from 2.4% in September. The so-called core measure, which excludes the cost of more volatile things like food and energy, held steady at 3.3%.
The numbers were still well higher than the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, and already some investors are on edge about what the president-elect’s proposed tariffs and growth-focused policies might mean for the future of inflation. If nothing else, it’s a reminder that the “last mile” in this inflation battle may be tricky.
US stocks hit a new milestone, outperforming their European counterparts by a wider-than-ever margin. Specifically, the S&P 500 was up 25% so far this year, compared to the 5% climb seen in Europe. The widening gap wasn’t a complete surprise: Europe’s economy was already looking shaky, and the potential for new tariffs and trade tensions could add even more pressure. Still, investors are now paying a record 70% valuation premium for US stocks over European ones, with some of them betting on a raft of new market-friendly policies to come. It’s worth keeping in mind though that markets have a habit of surprising folks, and high expectations don’t always match reality.
The Focus This Week: Nvidia’s Latest Update
Analysts and investors are predicting big things from Nvidia’s third-quarter update on Wednesday: namely, a big jump in profits and $32.9 billion in revenue – almost double last year’s $18 billion. They know there are three big trends fuelling Nvidia’s rise: surging demand for its AI-optimised chips, booming interest in its networking tech, and strong data centre sales growth.
That said, Nvidia’s got its challenges. Supply chain issues leave the chipmaker struggling to keep up with demand, and the ramp-up of Blackwell – Nvidia’s next-gen GPUs – could squeeze margins in the coming quarters, with its steep production costs.
It’s worth bearing in mind that Nvidia’s stock trades at around 35x its expected 2024 earnings, and potentially above 50x its 2025 earnings. That means there’s not much margin of safety if things don’t quite measure up. Nvidia may well keep beating expectations, but the stakes nonetheless are high: any signs of slowing demand could prompt a quick reset, freak some investors out, and bring the share price down. High reward, high risk.
Nvidia has become the poster boy for AI in particular and a major driver for stock market performance in general. We keep an eye on the earnings report because of the potential spill-over effect it can have on other companies.
The Week Ahead
- Monday: Nothing major.
- Tuesday: Canada inflation (October). Earnings: Walmart, Medtronic, XPeng.
- Wednesday: UK inflation (October). Earnings: Nvidia, NIO, Palo Alto Networks, Snowflake.
- Thursday: Eurozone consumer confidence (November). Earnings: Baidu, Deere, Intuit.
- Friday: Japan inflation (October), UK retail sales (October), eurozone PMIs (November), US PMIs (November), US consumer sentiment (November).
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