US inflation accelerated to 2.7% in June – a quicker clip than expected – as tariffs started feeding into consumer prices. That’s left the Federal Reserve in a bind: the White House is pressuring it to cut interest rates, but sticky inflation makes that seem ill-advised. Investors are still betting on a rate trim later this year, but the inflation trend has just added a new layer of uncertainty.

ASML smashed expectations in its latest quarter, with nearly $9 billion in sales and strong new orders, but its warning about murky growth ahead sent its stock tumbling 11%. The Dutch firm – which dominates the market for cutting-edge chipmaking tools – stuck to its modest 15% growth target for this year and scrapped its previous optimism for 2026, citing economic and geopolitical uncertainty. That’s a big deal for a company that hasn’t seen revenue stagnate in over a decade. Still, with the US easing chip sales restrictions to China, demand could bounce back… and so might ASML’s fortunes.

TSMC – ASML’s biggest customer – delivered record-breaking quarterly results, meanwhile, with revenue and profit jumping 39% and 61%, respectively, over the last year. The world’s biggest contract chipmaker responded by raising its full-year sales growth forecast to 30%. Still, the company flagged some potential speed bumps ahead, including rising overseas expansion costs and a stronger Taiwanese dollar, which could squeeze its impressive profit margins. But investors mostly brushed off those concerns, sending the stock up 4% instead.

China's economy posted surprisingly strong 5.2% growth last quarter, beating forecasts and staying on track to meet its full-year target of around 5%. The boost came as factories worked overtime and exporters front-loaded shipments to dodge potential US tariffs. But it wasn’t all good news: retail sales growth was disappointing, and the property market downturn continued to stoke deflationary worries. This had analysts warning about a tougher second half of the year, as the exports rush fades, domestic weakness lingers, and trade tensions persist.