The Magnificent Seven have done the heavy lifting for the S&P 500 for the past couple of years. So investors will be examining each bead of sweat as Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, and Apple open their books this week. Analysts predict that these four companies – along with Alphabet, Nvidia, and Tesla – saw their earnings grow by nearly 15% last quarter, compared to the same time last year. It's a sturdy showing, no question, but it’s feeble compared to the gains made in the past two years.

Mind you, that’s not the whole story – and it’s not the whole market either. If you magically disappear those Magnificent stocks, the rest of the S&P 500’s profits would likely have expanded by 5% last quarter – sure, that’s a lot smaller, but it’s actually an improvement compared to recent quarters. And with earnings growth now spreading to the broader market, there’s some fresh hope that US stocks might see a more balanced, more sustainable recovery after a nearly 10% drop so far this year.

And, yeah, much of this will depend on how the US economy holds up. The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta's GDPNow – a handy model that provides real-time growth estimates based on the latest data – projects that US economic output dipped slightly in the first quarter from the one before. (Of course, that forecast comes from the Atlanta Fed’s new model, which adjusts for gold imports and exports.)

Economists, on the other hand, are more optimistic, projecting a modest 0.3% annualized growth. That’s obviously better than a slight contraction, but that would still represent a big slowdown from the fourth quarter’s 2.4% pace. Of course, that could be way off base: all the tariff turmoil had been muddying the waters. A rush to import goods ahead of the new levies likely distorted last quarter’s data, making things seem weaker (or stronger) than they actually are. The real impact – on business investment and consumer spending – won’t likely be clear for another three months.

So for now, all eyes are on whether America’s tech giants can deliver strong earnings and whether the economy might cool enough to keep the Federal Reserve (Fed) at least thinking about future interest rate cuts. Because those things together just might strike a nice enough balance to put investors in a better mood.