The Focus This Week: The US Job Market
The Labour Department will release its closely watched monthly employment data on Thursday – a day early because of the Fourth of July holiday. The report is expected to show that the economy created about 125,000 jobs in June, slightly fewer than in May, and that the unemployment rate continued to hold steady at 4.2%.
Before that data, minutes from the Federal Reserve’s (Fed’s) latest meeting could set off sparks of its own. Policymakers’ outlook for interest rates this year is more divided than it has been since the central bank began publishing its “dot plot” forecasts in 2012. Roughly half of the voting members don’t see any rate cuts happening this year – while others still expect two. But what happens with the US job market could alter their thinking. After all, the Fed’s got two jobs: keeping inflation low and stable and achieving maximum employment. Until now, the country’s payroll data has appeared pretty solid, at least on first glance. But look closer, and job growth has been slowing, opportunities have been narrowing, and some pockets of the economy have been struggling.
Those two releases – and the ongoing uncertainty about US tariff plans – could put investors on edge all over again. With the New York Stock Exchange and the Nasdaq closing early for the holiday weekend on Thursday afternoon, the thinned-out trading volumes could leave the market awash with volatility instead.
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