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Nvidia’s Going To Give Folks The Scoop

Market Update

20.05.2024

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What happened last week?

US

  • Encouraging US economic data fuelled an all-asset rally.
  • Meme stocks roared back, then didn’t.

Global

  • Commodity prices hit a 13-month high.

What does this mean?

US inflation data rolled in without any nasty surprises, and a separate peek at retail sales showed shoppers were tightening their belts. It was the perfect cocktail for investors: it hinted that inflation is on track to fall and that shoppers aren’t giving it any fresh reasons to change course. And that only boosts the odds of rate cuts within the year. That sent stocks higher – with US and global shares hitting new highs.

With investor sentiment boiling up again, it’s perhaps no shocker that meme stocks made another attempt at a comeback. Popular day trader Keith Gill (a.k.a. “The Roaring Kitty”) popped back up on social media after a three-year hiatus and sent shares of GameStop and AMC skyward on Monday and Tuesday. By midweek, the hype had cooled and prices had tumbled.

Maybe it was all irrational exuberance, or maybe the more tempered market swings this time around are a sign of a more stable market environment. One thing is certain: the Reddit r/WallStreetBets crowd that drove the meme-stock frenzy in 2021 can still shake things up. So, keep your popcorn handy.

A key measure of raw material prices hit its highest level since April 2023, potentially complicating central banks’ plans to rein in inflation. The Bloomberg Commodity Spot Index, which tracks 24 energy, metal, and agricultural contracts, has been trending higher, fuelled by supply disruptions, geopolitical tensions, and investor appetite.

This week’s focus: Nvidia’s Going To Give Folks The Scoop

Analysts and investors have high hopes for Nvidia’s big quarterly update on Wednesday: they’re predicting $24 billion in revenue, over three times more than a year ago. And they’ll be keenly focused on how well the company’s data centre segment is doing, including its graphics processing units (GPUs) – which make powerful chips for AI tasks. The wide-reaching segment makes up about three-quarters of Nvidia's revenue.

This release could validate Nvidia’s nifty $2.2 trillion valuation or tone down the fervour surrounding AI stocks.

Nvidia’s shares have soared to $950, from $114, in less than two years, thanks in a big way to skyrocketing demand for AI and its data centres. It’s been the ultimate “pick-and-shovel” play in this tech revolution, with the huge competitive advantage it’s got around its (GPUs).

With cloud service behemoths like Amazon, Microsoft, and Google looking to spend even more than expected on AI, Nvidia likely won’t be dropping down to a lower gear anytime soon. Mind you, that’s not to say it will all be smooth sailing. Nvidia faces growing competition from Intel, AMD, and Arm. Plus, its heavy reliance on the AI chip market could backfire if the industry sees a hiccup along the way. Because investor expectations are already sky high, even a hint of bad news could have a disproportionate impact on the stock price. That alone has some investors wondering whether Nvidia’s biggest gains are behind it and whether it might be time to diversify into this trend’s other stocks. Companies like Meta, Intuit, Arm, Micron, CrowdStrike, Equinix, or even AI-powering utilities like Duke Energy are gaining attention as the potential next big play.

The Week Ahead

  • Monday: Earnings: Palo Alto Networks, Zoom.
  • Tuesday: Canada inflation (April), Australia’s central bank minutes. Earnings: XPeng.
  • Wednesday: UK inflation (April), US central bank minutes, Japan trade balance (April). Earnings: Nvidia, Snowflake, Synopsys.
  • Thursday: Germany manufacturing activity (May). Earnings: Intuit, Medtronic.
  • Friday: Japan inflation (April), UK retail sales (April), US durable goods orders (April).

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